TankOdds
Stop rolling. Start seeing the numbers.
Our NBA Draft Lottery odds simulator and probability calculator harnesses the statistical power of Monte Carlo modeling to run 1,000 trials in real time.
Unlike most tools generating a single random outcome from published odds, TankOdds lets you view accumulated results for each draft position and how protections affect whether a pick conveys, all displayed in easy-to-read graphs.
Click a lottery team row to explore its draft projections.
The lottery standings table is interactive. Move to a team row and press Enter or Space to open that team's simulator in a new tab.
| # | Team | W | L | Win% | GB | Balls | Top 4 | #1 OVR | Recipient | Protection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
0 | 4 | 0.000 | 3.5 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% |
|
1-14 |
| 2 |
|
0 | 3 | 0.000 | 3 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% |
|
|
| 3 |
|
0 | 3 | 0.000 | 3 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% |
|
HOU takes the better of HOU/BKN |
| 4 |
|
0 | 3 | 0.000 | 3.5 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% | Better of NOP/MIL to NOP, other to ATL | |
| 5 |
|
0 | 3 | 0.000 | 3.5 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% | ||
| 6 |
|
1 | 3 | 0.250 | 2.5 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% | ||
| 7 |
|
1 | 3 | 0.250 | 2.5 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% |
|
Better of NOP/MIL to NOP, other to ATL |
| 8 |
|
1 | 3 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% | ||
| 9 |
|
1 | 3 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
|
Best to MEM, 2nd to UTA, 3rd to PHX |
| 10 |
|
1 | 2 | 0.333 | 2.5 | 3 | 34.3% | 9.4% |
|
|
| 11 |
|
1 | 2 | 0.333 | 2 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% | ||
| 12 |
|
1 | 2 | 0.333 | 2.5 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% |
|
OKC/LAC/DEN pool, then LAC-TOR swap |
| 13 |
|
1 | 2 | 0.333 | 2.5 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.3% |
|
OKC/LAC/DEN pool, then LAC-TOR swap |
| 14 |
|
2 | 2 | 0.500 | 1.5 | 2 | 24.1% | 0.0% | ||
| 15 |
|
1 | 2 | 0.333 | 2.5 | 1 | 12.7% | 3.1% |
|
|
| 16 |
|
2 | 2 | 0.500 | 1.5 | 1 | 12.7% | 3.1% |
Pooled picks
HOU takes the better of HOU/BKN: The Rockets can swap their own pick for the Nets' pick, so the Rockets get the more favorable of the two and the Nets get the other.
Better of NOP/MIL to NOP, other to ATL: The Pelicans get the more favorable of their own pick and the Bucks' pick. The Hawks get the less favorable one, unless both land in the top four, in which case the Pelicans keep both.
Best to MEM, 2nd to UTA, 3rd to PHX: The Grizzlies get the most favorable of the Jazz, Cavaliers and Timberwolves picks, the Jazz get the second and the Suns get the least favorable. If the Jazz pick lands in the top five, Utah keeps it and the Grizzlies and Suns split the other two.
OKC/LAC/DEN pool, then LAC-TOR swap: The Thunder get the two most favorable of their own, the Clippers' and the Nuggets' picks. The Nuggets' pick only counts if it lands 6-30, otherwise Denver keeps it. The Clippers get the remaining pick, then can swap it for the Raptors' pick and keep the better one.
Pick Distribution Histogram
Accumulated pick outcomes across all draft positions, visualized as a probability landscape across 1,000 trials.
Probability to Convey
Protection rule resolution: likelihood a pick transfers given lottery outcomes.
Streaming Probability (EWMA)
Exponentially weighted moving average tracking simulation convergence in real time as trials accumulate.
2027 NBA Draft Lottery Odds by Team
The standings table above shows each lottery team's Top 4 and first overall pick probability under the 3-2-1 lottery the NBA adopted for the 2027 draft. Sixteen teams are in the lottery and all 16 picks are drawn. The Balls column shows each team's share of the 37 balls. The three worst records get 2, the rest of the teams outside the play-in get 3, the No. 9 and No. 10 play-in seeds get 2 and the 7-vs-8 play-in losers get 1. The odds are calculated exactly from the ball counts and floor rules, and they match the league's published figures. They also apply the repeat limits: a team's own pick cannot be No. 1 two years in a row or top five three years in a row, so in 2027 Washington cannot draw No. 1 and Utah cannot draw a top-five pick. When one of those teams is in the field, everyone else's odds rise slightly.
Before the play-in, the page projects the field from the standings and treats each conference's 8 seed as the 7-vs-8 loser. Once the play-in is over, the table switches to the actual field. Click any team row to run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for that seed and pick-protection setup. See how this compares to single-spin lottery tools. Read how the 3-2-1 lottery works.
