Thursday, March 9, 202315 games · 25 board prospects
Rutgers
19-13
Michigan
17-15
Wake Forest
19-14
Miami
25-6
St John's
18-15
Marquette
26-6
Iowa State
19-12
Baylor
22-10
Mississippi St
21-11
Florida
16-16
Ohio State
15-18
Iowa
19-13
Pitt
22-11
Duke
24-8
Providence
21-11
UConn
25-7
West Virginia
19-14
Kansas
26-6
Penn State
20-12
Illinois
20-12
Arkansas
20-12
Auburn
20-12
Stanford
14-19
Arizona
26-6
Minnesota
9-22
Maryland
21-11
Villanova
17-16
Creighton
21-11
Arizona St
22-11
USC
22-10
Last updated 10:11 AM EST ET
How games are chosen
A game shows up here when either team has a player in the top 30 of the TankOdds 2027 big board, a consensus of eight public boards and mock drafts. International prospects play outside college, so their games aren't listed. Scores and schedules come from ESPN. Rankings next to team names are the AP Top 25.
How the college simulation works
Click Run Simulation on an upcoming game and your browser plays it out 50,000 times. The starting point is the spread and over/under on the card. If the home team is favored by 8 with an O/U of 150, their mean is 79 and the away team's is 71. Each trial draws a shared game pace that moves both scores together, then adds each team's own scoring swing. Home court and neutral sites are already priced into the spread.
Win % is how often each team won across the 50,000 trials. Within 5 is how often the final margin was 5 points or fewer, and 15+ margin is how often either team won by 15 or more. The bottom row shows the middle 80% of simulated margins, so one trial in ten finished beyond each end.
The college sim uses one variance setting for every team because early-season scoring samples are too small to trust. That means it reads the market line instead of challenging it, so there is no edge or lean rating like the NBA cards have. It doesn't know about injuries, minutes limits or lineup changes. This is a statistical simulation for educational and entertainment purposes, not gambling advice. For NBA games, see Today's NBA Games.
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