TankOdds
Stop rolling. Start seeing the numbers.
Our NBA Draft Lottery odds simulator and probability calculator harnesses the statistical power of Monte Carlo modeling to run 1,000 trials in real time.
Unlike most tools generating a single random outcome from published odds, TankOdds lets you view accumulated results for each draft position and how protections affect whether a pick conveys, all displayed in easy-to-read graphs.
Click a lottery team row to explore its draft projections.
The lottery standings table is interactive. Move to a team row and press Enter or Space to open that team's simulator in a new tab.
| # | Team | W | L | Win% | GB | Top 4 | #1 OVR | Recipient | Protection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
17 | 60 | 0.221 | 39.5 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
|
1-8 |
| 2 |
|
18 | 59 | 0.234 | 38.5 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
|
1-4,10-30 |
| 3 |
|
18 | 59 | 0.234 | 38.5 | 52.1% | 14.0% | ||
| 4 |
|
21 | 57 | 0.269 | 40.5 | 48.1% | 12.5% | ||
| 5 |
|
21 | 57 | 0.269 | 40.5 | 42.1% | 10.5% |
|
1-8 |
| 6 |
|
24 | 53 | 0.312 | 37 | 37.2% | 9.0% | ||
| 7 |
|
25 | 53 | 0.321 | 36.5 | 31.9% | 7.5% |
|
|
| 8 |
|
25 | 52 | 0.325 | 36 | 26.2% | 6.0% | ||
| 9 |
|
29 | 48 | 0.377 | 27.5 | 20.2% | 4.5% | ||
| 10 |
|
30 | 47 | 0.390 | 26.5 | 13.9% | 3.0% | ||
| 11 |
|
36 | 41 | 0.468 | 25 | 9.4% | 2.0% | ||
| 12 |
|
39 | 38 | 0.506 | 22 | 7.2% | 1.5% |
|
|
| 13 |
|
40 | 38 | 0.513 | 21.5 | 4.7% | 1.0% |
|
1-14 |
| 14 |
|
41 | 37 | 0.526 | 16 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
Pick Distribution Histogram
Accumulated pick outcomes across all draft positions, visualized as a probability landscape across 1,000 trials.
Probability to Convey
Protection rule resolution: likelihood a pick transfers given lottery outcomes.
Streaming Probability (EWMA)
Exponentially weighted moving average tracking simulation convergence in real time as trials accumulate.
2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds by Team
The standings table above shows each lottery team's Top 4 probability and first overall pick probability, sourced directly from the NBA's published lottery odds for the 2025–26 season. These figures reflect the fixed combination weights the league assigns to each of the 14 lottery seeds — 140 combinations for the worst record down to 5 for the 14th seed, out of 1,000 total, per NBA official lottery rules. They are deterministic: they do not change based on simulation results and represent the pre-lottery odds the NBA publishes for each seed position.
Click any team row to run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for that team's specific seed and pick protection structure. Unlike a static odds table, the simulator models how protection rules interact with the lottery draw — so you can see not just the raw top-four odds, but the realistic probability of a protected pick conveying to its recipient under the current season's protection terms. See how this compares to single-spin lottery tools.
