FAQ

When is the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?

The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery was held on Sunday, May 10, 2026. It determined the top four picks in the 2026 NBA Draft. The remaining ten lottery picks (5 through 14) fell in reverse order of regular-season record without another drawing.

What were the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery results?

The official 2026 NBA Draft Lottery results from May 10, 2026:

1. Washington Wizards
2. Utah Jazz
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Indiana Pacers
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Sacramento Kings
8. New Orleans Pelicans
9. Dallas Mavericks
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
13. Miami Heat
14. Charlotte Hornets

The Washington Wizards won the lottery and will select first overall in the 2026 NBA Draft. Load the official order into the Lottery Forecast to see how the mock draft board fills in around the actual results.

Which NBA teams had the best 2026 draft lottery odds?

Going into the May 10, 2026 lottery, the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets finished with the three worst records in the 2025–26 regular season. Each held approximately a 14.0% chance of winning the first pick and a 52.1% chance of landing in the top four, per the NBA’s official lottery probability table. The Washington Wizards converted their top-three odds into the No. 1 overall pick when the lottery was drawn.

Use the Lottery Forecast to load the official results and build the mock board, or the Team Pick Sim to run Monte Carlo trials for any individual team.

Who is projected to be the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

AJ Dybantsa, a freshman small forward from BYU, is the consensus projected #1 overall pick. He led the nation in scoring with 25.5 PPG and declared for the draft on April 23, 2026. Darryn Peterson (Kansas) and Cameron Boozer (Duke) are the other names most consistently placed in the top three on draft boards.

What is NBA tanking?

Tanking refers to a team intentionally losing games late in the regular season to improve its position in the NBA Draft Lottery. Because lottery odds are weighted by reverse record, the worst teams receive the most lottery combinations and the highest probability of landing an early pick. A team near the lottery cutoff may rest key players or field a shorter rotation to maximize its draft odds rather than compete for a low playoff seed with little upside.

The NBA has adjusted its lottery structure over time to reduce the benefit of extreme tanking — the current system flattens odds for the three worst teams so that no single team can guarantee the first pick regardless of how bad its record is. See the League Changes page for the 2026 anti-tanking reform proposals currently under review.

How is TankOdds different from Tankathon?

Tankathon runs a single lottery spin and shows one projected order. TankOdds runs up to 1,000 independent simulations per session and displays the full probability distribution — how often each pick position showed up across all trials. That gives you the real range of outcomes and how tightly or loosely packed they are, rather than treating one random result as if it were the answer.

TankOdds also resolves pick protection rules before each simulation draws, so every outcome in the distribution respects the current protection structure. Tankathon does not model conveyance probability. TankOdds also includes NCAA tools (bracket simulator, champion simulator) and a full NBA playoff bracket simulator that Tankathon doesn’t offer. See the full comparison.

How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?

The NBA gives each of the 14 lottery teams a weighted share of 1,000 numbered combinations based on reverse record. The worst team gets 140 combinations. The 14th seed gets 5. Four picks are drawn by lottery. After that, picks 5 through 14 fill in by reverse record.

TankOdds runs those same mechanics thousands of times to estimate the full distribution of outcomes.

What are Top 4 odds in the NBA Draft Lottery?

Top 4 odds represent the probability that a lottery team lands one of the first four picks in the NBA Draft Lottery, based on the NBA's official published lottery probability table. Those are the only positions determined by the lottery drawing. The remaining picks are assigned by reverse order of regular-season record.

What are protected picks?

Protected picks only transfer if the final draft position falls outside a stated protection range. If the team lands inside that range, it keeps the pick for that year. A pick protected 1 through 4 only conveys if it lands at 5 or lower. TankOdds uses interval notation such as 1-4 or 1-4,10-14.

What does "Top 4 protected" mean?

A Top 4 protected pick means the draft pick only conveys if the team lands outside the top four picks in the NBA Draft Lottery. If the lottery result is 1–4, the team keeps the pick for that year. TankOdds simulations estimate how often that pick actually conveys under those protection conditions.

What does it mean for a pick to convey?

A pick conveys when it transfers to the team that acquired it in a trade. If it doesn't convey, the original team keeps it for that year. TankOdds estimates conveyance probability by running repeated simulations and measuring how often the final position lands outside the protected range.

Why do the probabilities change during simulation?

The displayed probabilities are running averages. Early in a run, one result can move the estimate a lot. As more trials come in, the estimate settles down. That early wobble is normal.

What does the outcome strip show that the histogram does not?

The histogram shows frequency by pick position. The outcome strip keeps the full run order. That lets you see whether convey and retain outcomes are clumped together or spread more evenly across the session.

How does seed movement work?

Before each drawing, the simulator can nudge the team's seed up or down. Small moves are much more common than big ones. That creates a wider distribution than the fixed-seed case because the starting position is no longer treated as locked.

Does re-running produce the same result?

No. Each run is independent random sampling. Results will be close but not identical, and the differences shrink as simulation count grows.

What is the statistical basis for Monte Carlo estimation?

Monte Carlo simulation estimates a probability by repeated sampling. More trials reduce noise, but each extra trial helps a little less than the one before it.

The NBA lottery is a good fit for this because the top four picks are drawn without replacement from a weighted pool. Once one team wins a pick, the odds for the remaining teams change. You can solve that analytically, but simulation is a much cleaner way to get the same answer in practice.

What is the math behind the conveyance probability estimate?

After each simulation determines the lottery position, that position is evaluated against the protection range. The trial contributes 1 if the position falls outside the protected set and 0 if it falls within. The Prob to Convey figure is the sum of all trial results divided by the total number of simulations. At 1,000 simulations with P near 0.5, the standard error is approximately ±1.6%.

What is the pick distribution measuring mathematically?

Each simulation records the final lottery position. The bar for position k is just the share of simulations that landed there. The histogram and conveyance number are related, but they aren't the same thing. The histogram shows every position. Conveyance only asks whether that position was inside or outside the protected range.

What is the EWMA and how is the smoothing window calculated?

The streaming probability chart uses an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. Recent trials count more than older ones. With the current settings, the half-life is about 4 simulations and the effective span is roughly 13.

What notation does Protected Picks accept?

Comma-separated intervals: 1-4 protects positions 1 through 4. 1-4,10-14 protects two disjoint ranges. A single number like 5 protects only that position. Leaving the field blank means unprotected.

What do the Top 4 and #1 OVR columns mean, and where do those numbers come from?

Top 4 is the probability that a team's lottery position lands in the top four picks, which are the positions drawn first in the NBA lottery. #1 OVR is the probability of landing the first overall pick specifically. Both figures are sourced directly from the NBA's published lottery odds for the 2025–26 season, which assign each of the 14 lottery seeds a fixed probability distribution across pick outcomes based on the combination weighting system the league uses.

These columns are deterministic. They do not change based on simulation results. They reflect the fixed pre-lottery odds the NBA publishes for each seed position. The simulation samples from those same odds to produce the pick distribution and conveyance estimates, which do vary across runs.

How does the NCAA Champion Probability Simulator work?

The simulator runs 1,000 simulations from the Final Four through the championship game using the opening Final Four title odds from March 29, 2026 as the starting point. Each matchup is resolved with game-level probabilities derived from those title odds, and the final output is a distribution showing how often each team won.

How are championship odds converted to per-game win probability?

Championship odds cannot be used directly as literal single-game probabilities because they reflect the full multi-game path to a title. The simulator converts them to implied title probabilities, then compares the two teams directly in any matchup: if Team A has probability pA and Team B has probability pB, Team A's base chance is pA / (pA + pB) before the Upset Factor is applied.

What does the Upset Factor do?

The Upset Factor slider controls how much randomness is injected into each simulated game on top of the championship-odds model. At 0 percent, the simulator follows the direct title-probability matchup baseline. At 100 percent, every game becomes a pure 50/50 coin flip regardless of odds. The default setting is 10 percent.

Why does it show a distribution instead of a single winner?

One simulation gives you one champion. That is fine for fun, but not for understanding the odds. Running 1,000 simulations and counting the winners gives you a much better read on which teams have real title paths and how concentrated the probability is at the top.

Are the NCAA simulator results based on real sportsbook odds?

Yes. The simulator is seeded with the opening Final Four championship odds from March 29, 2026, converted into implied title probabilities and then translated into matchup probabilities by comparing the two teams directly in each simulated game.

How does the NBA Playoff Bracket Simulator work?

The simulator pulls live conference standings from the ESPN API, so the seeds reflect the current season. DraftKings championship odds provide the strength signal for each series. The full play-in tournament is included. Before the field is finalized, the play-in stays live. After it is finalized, Reset Sim restores the verified play-in results for that season.

How does the play-in tournament work in the simulator?

Each conference runs three play-in games. Game A is 7 vs 8, and the winner gets the 7 seed. Game B is 9 vs 10, and the loser is out. Game C is the loser of Game A against the winner of Game B, and the winner gets the 8 seed. Before the field is finalized, those slots stay live on the page. After the play-in is complete, Reset Sim restores the verified results for that season.

Where do the NBA bracket seeds come from?

Conference standings are pulled live from the ESPN API each time the page loads, so the bracket always reflects the current regular-season order. The play-in field (seeds 7 through 10 per conference) populates automatically. Once the real first-round field is confirmed, those slots are replaced by the verified playoff field for that season. No manual entry is needed.

How are win probabilities calculated for NBA series?

The simulator converts championship odds into implied probabilities, then compares the two teams directly for each series: if Team A has implied title probability pA and Team B has implied title probability pB, Team A's base chance of winning the series is pA / (pA + pB). That base series probability is then blended toward 50/50 by the Upset Factor slider. Championship odds are used as the source instead of series-specific odds, so this remains an approximation and not a sportsbook-matched series market.

What does the Upset Factor do in the NBA bracket?

The Upset Factor slider (0 to 100 percent, default 20 percent) controls how closely win probabilities follow the underlying championship odds versus converging toward a pure coin flip. At 0 percent, the live title-market baseline is preserved. At 100 percent, every series is 50/50 regardless of seeding or odds. Raising the slider makes underdogs more competitive without changing the underlying standings or bracket.

Can I simulate individual series or do I have to run the whole bracket?

Individual series can be simulated by clicking any unlocked matchup in the bracket. The popup shows the two teams and a Simulate This Series button, which plays the slot machine animation and locks in a result. Dependent matchups in the next round unlock automatically once a result is set. Simulate All runs every available game from the earliest unlocked stage forward. Reset Sim clears all simulated results while keeping live standings in place, so you can run a new scenario without reloading the page.

What are the small numbered badges on the first-round slots?

Those are live series win totals pulled from the ESPN scoreboard. Each badge shows how many games that team has won in the current series. The data refreshes every 10 minutes. The badges only appear on first-round slots — later rounds don't show them because the live count would be stale once a team advances.

Can I export or print the NBA bracket?

Yes. The Export dropdown provides four options. Print opens a clean print layout with a white background and no controls, suitable for printing or saving as a PDF. Save HD PNG downloads a high-resolution image of the full bracket. Copy Image to Clipboard puts the bracket on your system clipboard for pasting into messages or social posts. Copy Image and Post to X copies the image and opens X with a pre-filled link.

What is the Lottery Forecast?

The Lottery Forecast is a full-lottery simulator that models all 14 NBA Draft Lottery picks simultaneously instead of analyzing one team at a time. Before the playoff field is finalized, it uses standings as the current lottery projection. After the play-in is complete, it switches to the true 14-team lottery field by removing the confirmed playoff teams. It then applies current pick-protection rules, runs complete lottery drawings, and displays a projected order for all 14 teams. The chart labels show how many times the displayed team landed in that exact slot during the current run.

How is the Lottery Forecast different from the Team Pick Sim?

The Team Pick Sim focuses on one team's pick and asks whether it conveys under a protection rule. The Lottery Forecast simulates all 14 picks at once and then maps that order to a weighted mock draft board. They answer different questions.

Why do picks 1 through 3 show low bars but picks 11 through 14 show tall bars?

Bar height in the current version represents occurrence count, not percentage. Picks 1 through 3 stay relatively low because several teams have similar top-lottery odds, so the sample spreads those early slots across multiple teams. Picks 11 through 14 tend to show much taller bars because once the four lottery winners are drawn, the rest of the board usually falls back into seed order.

How does the mock draft work in the Lottery Forecast?

Once the simulation settles on a projected pick order, clicking Generate Lottery Draft runs a weighted mock board that assigns one 2026 prospect to each slot. The model balances three inputs: TankOdds prospect rankings, editorial team need, and recurring player-team fits from current expert mocks. Top picks lean hardest toward prospect quality, while later picks give team need and fit more room to matter.

Each generation also adds small position-scaled variation. Picks 1 through 3 are nearly locked in, while mid-to-late lottery picks can shift by a few spots so the board behaves more like a real mock draft.

Why does the mock draft change when I generate it again?

Each draft generation introduces controlled random variation after the weighted score is calculated. The top of the board gets only a tiny amount of movement, so the first few picks stay very stable.

Later lottery picks get a wider range, which allows realistic shuffling by a few spots instead of producing the exact same board every time.

Can I use the real NBA lottery results instead of a simulated order?

Yes. Once the official NBA lottery results are announced, TankOdds can load that real lottery order directly so you can see how the mock draft would play out using the actual lottery outcome.

What do the asterisks (*) mean next to team names in the Lottery Forecast?

A single asterisk flags teams whose pick may convey to another franchise depending on where it lands in the lottery. A double asterisk indicates the current projected slot already falls outside protection, so the pick would convey to the recipient shown. Use the Team Pick Sim for full protection analysis on any specific pick obligation.

What does the NBA Standings page show?

The NBA Standings page shows all 30 teams ranked best to worst by win percentage with live data from the ESPN API. The Conference view (the default) stacks Western and Eastern Conference standings in a single table with Western Conference on top, so there is no need to switch between separate pages to compare cross-conference records. The Overall view ranks all 30 teams together, which is useful for identifying the league's best and worst records and seeing where the lottery line sits across the full NBA.

Columns include wins, losses, win percentage, games behind, home record, road record, last ten games, current streak, points per game, opponent points per game, and point differential. Clinch status is displayed inline as a small badge next to each team name instead of in a separate column, which keeps the table compact while still showing postseason status at a glance.

What is the difference between Conference and Overall view?

Conference view ranks teams only against the other teams in their own conference, which is the view that matters for playoff seeding. Overall view combines all 30 teams in one league-wide order, which is useful for comparing the best and worst records in the NBA without switching between East and West.

Games behind is handled differently in the two views. Conference view uses ESPN's conference-specific games behind figure. Overall view recalculates games behind relative to the team with the best record in the entire league, so the values can differ from the conference table.

Where does the standings data come from?

Standings are sourced live from the ESPN public API each time the page loads. Records, streaks, and per-game scoring figures reflect the current regular season and update automatically without any manual input. Games behind in the Overall view is recalculated relative to the team with the best record across all 30 teams; the Conference view uses ESPN's conference-specific games behind figure.

What does point differential (DIFF) mean?

Point differential is the per-game average margin by which a team outscores or is outscored by its opponents across the regular season. A positive differential means a team scores more than it gives up on average; a negative differential means the opposite. Teams with a large positive differential tend to sustain their performance better than teams winning close games despite a negative differential. DIFF is shown in green for positive and red for negative values. Run the NBA Bracket Simulator to see how these teams stack up in the playoffs.

What does the dotted separator line in the Conference view mean?

The dotted separator line appears between seed 6 and seed 7 in each conference. Teams seeded 1 through 6 advance directly to the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Teams seeded 7 through 10 move into the play-in tournament, where the final two playoff spots in each conference are decided.

That direct-playoff cutoff is the most important break in the standings table, which is why TankOdds highlights it visually. The final lottery field is decided after the play-in, so two teams from the 7 through 10 group still drop back into the lottery race every year.

What do the clinch badges mean?

TankOdds simplifies ESPN's clinch markers into a small set of easy-to-scan badges shown next to team names. z means a team has clinched its division. y means it has clinched its conference. x means it has clinched a playoff berth. p means it has at least clinched a play-in spot. e means the team has been eliminated.

Eliminated teams are also visually dimmed so the active playoff and play-in race is easier to scan. This is especially useful late in the season when some standings rows remain relevant for playoff seeding while others are mainly relevant for lottery position.

How does the TankOdds simulation on the Today's NBA Games page work?

Each sim runs 50,000 trials in your browser. No server involved. The page shows the current spread, over/under, and moneyline from ESPN, but the model uses the spread and over/under to set expected scores: if the home team is favored by 6 with an O/U of 226, their expected score is 116 and the away team's is 110. From there it draws each game in two layers. First it draws a shared game script that affects both teams together. Then it adds each team's own scoring variance from this season. Memphis has one of the tightest scoring distributions in the league. New York is one of the most volatile. The model also factors in the head-to-head series record, applying a small adjustment to the expected margin based on the season and playoff series standing between the two teams.

What does the edge reading mean?

Edge compares the model's win probability to the win probability the spread implies. Green (5%+) means the model sees a stronger difference from the market. Amber (3 to 4%) is a smaller lean. Gray means the model and market are in rough agreement. This is not a pick recommendation.

What is the Line Move row on each game card?

When two or more stored DraftKings line snapshots exist for a game, a Line Move row appears at the bottom of the card. The main odds line still comes from ESPN. The Line Move row tracks how the market changed from the opening number to the current number. If the spread did not move, the row shows the current spread with "(stable)" next to it. If the spread moved, it shows the spread change as a delta such as -2.0 or +1.5. If the total moved, the O/U shows as a delta such as +1.0 or -0.5, since the full current total is already visible on the main odds line.

Line movement shows where the market changed since open. Sharp money, public betting, and injury or lineup news can all move a line. A move is a signal that the market changed, not proof by itself that one side is the right bet.

Why did the edge reading change since I last checked?

The sim uses the current spread and O/U every time you run it. If either number shifted since your last visit, the model inputs changed and the edge will reflect that. The visible odds row comes from ESPN, and the separate Line Move row shows whether stored DraftKings snapshots captured a change since open.

What is Hit or Brick?

Hit or Brick is a blackjack-style game built from NBA legends and current stars. The deck has 52 cards, and each player is assigned a rank from 2 through Ace using standard blackjack values.

How do card values work in Hit or Brick?

Aces are worth 11 unless they need to drop to 1. Kings, Queens, Jacks, and Tens are worth 10. Numbered cards keep their rank. The goal is the same as blackjack: get to 21 without going over.

Do the player stats set the card value in Hit or Brick?

No. The stats on each card are there for context, but the game score comes from the card rank. The deck is built to play like blackjack, not like a stat-total game.

How does the dealer work in Hit or Brick?

The dealer gets two cards at the start of each hand. One card is face-up and one stays hidden until you stand. Once you stand, the hole card flips and the dealer draws until reaching 17 or higher.

Are the player stats in Hit or Brick real?

Yes. Current players use 2025-26 regular-season averages. Legends use career averages. The stats appear on each card for reference, but the game value comes from the player rank in the deck.