TankOdds vs. Tankathon: Why a Probability Distribution Changes Everything

Tankathon is the most widely used NBA draft lottery tool and has been for years. If you have used it, you know what it does: click a button, get a simulated lottery result, see where your team lands. That is useful — but it is a single spin. One outcome from a distribution that has many. TankOdds was built around a different question: not "where did the team land this time," but "across all realistic outcomes, how often does the team land there?"

Single outcome vs. probability distribution

When a tool runs one lottery draw, the result is accurate in the same way a coin flip is accurate — it followed the rules, but it does not tell you the probability. Run it 10 times and you start to see a shape. Run it 1,000 times and the distribution stabilizes into something you can actually use to evaluate a trade or a protection structure.

TankOdds runs up to 1,000 independent Monte Carlo simulations per session and displays a histogram of every position where the pick landed. That histogram is the probability distribution — the actual statistical picture of the pick's range of outcomes under the current seed and protection settings, using the NBA's official combination weights as the simulation input.

Protection rules resolved before the draw, not after

Pick protection adds a layer of logic that a single-spin tool cannot easily represent. A Top 4 protected pick behaves differently from a Top 10 protected pick even if both teams share the same lottery seed — the distribution of conveying outcomes across 1,000 trials looks completely different. TankOdds resolves the protection structure before each simulation draws, which means every result in the distribution already accounts for whether the pick conveyed or was retained under that trial's lottery outcome.

The conveyance probability shown in the simulator — the running estimate of how often the pick transfers to its recipient — is the result of counting those outcomes across all completed trials. It is not a formula. It is the observed frequency from the simulation itself, converging toward the true long-run probability as trials accumulate.

What TankOdds has that Tankathon does not

  • Pick distribution histogram — see all 14 positions, not just the result of one draw
  • Conveyance probability estimate — the running probability a protected pick transfers, updated trial by trial
  • EWMA streaming chart — smoothed convergence tracker showing how the estimate stabilizes as simulations accumulate
  • Seed movement modeling — optional variance on the donor team's final lottery position to account for remaining-season uncertainty
  • NCAA bracket simulator — sportsbook odds-based bracket simulation with upset factor control
  • NBA playoff bracket simulator — live standings seeding with DraftKings championship odds for win probability
  • NCAA champion probability simulator — Final Four Monte Carlo run with opening title-odds baseline
  • Draft prospect pages — scouting reports for top 2026 NBA Draft prospects

What Tankathon does better

Tankathon has been around longer and has a larger audience. Its real-time standings updates are well-known, and the single-spin format is fast and easy to share. If you want to quickly show a friend "here is one possible lottery result," it works well. TankOdds is the better tool if you want to understand probability — if you are evaluating a trade involving a protected pick, comparing how two different protection structures change the odds, or trying to understand the realistic range of outcomes rather than one possible result.

Start with the Team Pick Sim to run 1,000 simulations for any lottery team, or see the How It Works page for a full explanation of the Monte Carlo methodology and simulation controls.