View the draft as a probability landscape

Stop rolling. Start seeing the numbers.

Our NBA Draft Lottery odds simulator and probability calculator harnesses the statistical power of Monte Carlo modeling to run 1,000 trials in real time.

Unlike most tools generating a single random outcome from published odds, TankOdds lets you view accumulated results for each draft position and how protections affect whether a pick conveys, all displayed in easy-to-read graphs.

Click a lottery team row to explore its draft projections.

#	W	L	Win%	GB	Top 4	#1 OVR	Protection
1	17	65	0.207	43	52.1%	14.0%	1-8
2	19	63	0.232	41	52.1%	14.0%	1-4,10-30
3	20	62	0.244	40	52.1%	14.0%
4	22	60	0.268	42	48.1%	12.5%
5	22	60	0.268	42	42.1%	10.5%	1-8
6	25	57	0.305	39	37.2%	9.0%
7	26	56	0.317	38	31.9%	7.5%
8	26	56	0.317	38	26.2%	6.0%
9	31	51	0.378	29	20.2%	4.5%
10	32	50	0.390	28	13.9%	3.0%
11	37	45	0.451	27	9.4%	2.0%
12	42	40	0.512	22	7.2%	1.5%
13	43	39	0.524	17	4.7%	1.0%
14	44	38	0.537	16	2.4%	0.5%

Pick Distribution Histogram

Accumulated pick outcomes across all draft positions, visualized as a probability landscape across 1,000 trials.

Bar chart from the Team Pick Sim showing six pick outcomes, with pick 5 highlighted as the most common result. — Example pick-distribution chart with six visible bars and pick 5 standing above the others.

Probability to Convey

Protection rule resolution: likelihood a pick transfers given lottery outcomes.

Outcome strip from the Team Pick Sim showing alternating gold and red vertical results across the simulation run. — Example outcome strip with many narrow gold and red bands representing per-simulation results.

Streaming Probability (EWMA)

Exponentially weighted moving average tracking simulation convergence in real time as trials accumulate.

Streaming probability line chart from the Team Pick Sim with a red line fluctuating across the middle of the graph. — Example EWMA chart with a red line moving up and down as the conveyance estimate updates.

2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds by Team

The standings table above shows each lottery team's Top 4 probability and first overall pick probability from the NBA's published lottery table for the current 14 seed order. Those odds are fixed by seed. The worst lottery team gets 140 combinations out of 1,000, while the 14th seed gets 5. TankOdds uses the league's published weights for each seed, so the percentages in the table are fixed inputs and not simulated outputs.

Before the playoff field is finalized, the page treats the lottery race as a standings-based projection. Once the play-in is over and the real 16-team playoff field is confirmed, the table switches to the true lottery field by removing those playoff teams. Click any team row to run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for that seed and pick-protection setup. See how this compares to single-spin lottery tools. View the official 2026 NBA Draft Lottery results.