About

What Is TankOdds

TankOdds is an NBA draft lottery probability tool built by StatsLab. It runs Monte Carlo simulations of the NBA lottery to produce probability distributions across draft positions, rather than generating a single random outcome the way most simulators do.

The goal is to give fans, analysts, and front-office followers a clearer view of how protected pick obligations interact with lottery odds — not as a one-off spin, but as a full probability landscape.

How It Works

Each simulation resolves the NBA's weighted lottery drawing for the donor team's seed position, records where the pick lands, and evaluates whether it conveys given the stated protection range. After 1,500 simulations, the accumulated results form a distribution that approximates the true underlying probability.

Pick conveyance rules for the 2025–26 season are modeled from publicly available trade and draft information. See the How It Works page for a detailed breakdown of the methodology.

Data Source

Current standings and team records are fetched in real time from the ESPN standings API. Draft pick trade obligations for the 2025–26 season are modeled from publicly available trade and draft records and encoded directly into the rule engine. Lottery odds are sourced from the NBA's published probability tables for the 2025–26 season.

Scope and Limitations

TankOdds models the current season's pick conveyance rules. It does not account for future protection conditions that activate in subsequent seasons if a pick does not convey, injuries, trades that occur after the current rule set is published, or any conditions not derived from publicly available information. Simulation outputs are statistical estimates — each run produces a different result, and estimates stabilize as trial count increases. Results should be treated as probability distributions, not predictions.

Built By

TankOdds is a basketball analytics platform developed by StatsLab, a San Diego, California-based company founded by a scientist with an MD-PhD background in genetics and statistical modeling. A lifelong basketball fan, the founder built TankOdds to apply the same quantitative methods used in high-impact scientific research, including biostatistical analysis of genomic data, to make draft odds, simulations, and prospect analysis more transparent and data-driven. StatsLab develops data tools and analytics across science, medicine, education, and sports. TankOdds is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the NBA or any of its member teams.