FAQ

How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?

The NBA assigns each of the 14 lottery teams a fixed probability of landing in the top four picks of the NBA Draft Lottery, based on reverse regular-season order. Per NBA official lottery rules, teams receive a weighted share of 1,000 numbered combinations — 140 combinations for the worst-record team down to 5 combinations for the 14th seed. The team with the worst record holds the largest share and therefore the highest probability of winning a top pick. Four picks are determined by lottery drawing in sequence. After those four picks are set, the remaining ten lottery teams fill picks 5 through 14 in reverse order of regular-season record without another drawing.

TankOdds simulates these same lottery mechanics thousands of times, using the NBA's published combination weights, to estimate the full probability distribution of draft outcomes.

What are Top 4 odds in the NBA Draft Lottery?

Top 4 odds represent the probability that a lottery team lands one of the first four picks in the NBA Draft Lottery, per the NBA's official published lottery probability table. These are the only positions determined by the lottery drawing; the remaining picks are assigned by reverse order of regular-season record.

What are protected picks?

Protected picks are draft picks that only transfer if the final draft position falls outside a specified protection range in the NBA Draft Lottery. If the lottery places the donor team within the protected range, the pick is retained by the original owner and does not convey that year. For example, a pick protected 1 through 4 conveys only if the donor lands at position 5 or lower. Other common protection structures include Top 5 protected and Top 10 protected picks, depending on the trade terms. Protection ranges are entered in TankOdds using interval notation such as 1-4 or 1-4,10-14.

What does "Top 4 protected" mean?

A Top 4 protected pick means the draft pick only conveys if the team lands outside the top four picks in the NBA Draft Lottery. If the lottery result is 1–4, the team keeps the pick for that year. TankOdds simulations estimate how often the pick conveys under those protection conditions.

What does it mean for a pick to convey?

A pick conveys when it transfers from the team that originally owned the draft pick to the team that acquired it in a trade. A pick that does not convey is retained by the original owner for that year. Whether a pick conveys in any given lottery depends on the lottery outcome relative to the protection conditions attached to the pick. The simulation evaluates whether the pick conveys to the receiving team or is retained by the original team based on the protection range. TankOdds estimates conveyance probability by running repeated simulations and measuring what fraction of outcomes produce a draft position outside the protected range.

Why do the probabilities change during simulation?

The probability estimates shown by TankOdds are running averages of all completed trials. With only a few simulations, any single result has a large influence on the estimate. As trials accumulate, the law of large numbers causes the estimate to stabilize toward its long-run value. The fluctuation visible early in a run is the expected behavior of any sample-based estimator converging, not noise in the lottery mechanics themselves.

What does the outcome strip show that the histogram does not?

The histogram collapses all results into position frequencies, losing any information about sequence or order. The outcome strip preserves the order of every individual trial. This lets you see the literal sequence of convey and retain events that produced the aggregate histogram. Whether conveyance events appear clustered or uniformly distributed across the run is visible in the strip and invisible in any summary statistic or the histogram.

How does seed movement work?

Before each drawing, a shift magnitude is sampled from an exponential decay probability distribution across values 0 through 4, making small shifts far more probable than large ones. A random direction is applied and the result is clamped to the valid seed range 1 through 14. Because this happens independently each trial, no two simulations are guaranteed the same effective seed when movement is enabled. The resulting pick distribution is wider than the fixed-seed case.

Does re-running produce the same result?

No. Each run is independent random sampling. Results will be close but not identical, with differences narrowing as simulation count grows.

What is the statistical basis for Monte Carlo estimation?

Monte Carlo simulation produces an unbiased estimator of the true probability. For any outcome X_t, the sample mean P̂ = (1/N) × ∑X_t is an unbiased estimator of the true underlying probability, with variance P(1−P)/N. The standard error shrinks at the rate of 1/√N, so each additional simulation reduces uncertainty, but with diminishing returns.

The NBA lottery is particularly suited to Monte Carlo because the first four picks are drawn without replacement from a weighted pool. This creates conditional probability dependencies across draws: the probability that any remaining team wins the second pick depends on who won the first. Computing the exact probability of any specific outcome analytically requires summing over all ordered draw sequences, each weighted by its joint probability. With seed movement adding distributional uncertainty to the starting position across trials, Monte Carlo produces an empirically equivalent answer without requiring that enumeration.

What is the math behind the conveyance probability estimate?

After each simulation determines the lottery position, that position is evaluated against the protection range. The trial contributes 1 if the position falls outside the protected set and 0 if it falls within. The Prob to Convey figure is the sum of all trial results divided by the total number of simulations. At 1,000 simulations with P near 0.5, the standard error is approximately ±1.6%.

What is the pick distribution measuring mathematically?

Each simulation records the lottery position drawn for the donor's effective seed. The bar for position k represents the empirical probability P(X=k) = Count_k / N, where Count_k is the number of simulations that produced position k and N is total simulations. The decimal below each bar is this fraction. The pick distribution and conveyance probability are related but distinct: the histogram shows all lottery positions regardless of protection; conveyance is derived separately by evaluating which of those positions fall outside the protected range.

What is the EWMA and how is the smoothing window calculated?

The streaming probability chart uses an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. The formula is: current output = 0.15 times this trial's result, plus 0.85 times the previous output, where the smoothing parameter α = 0.15. The half-life, meaning the number of trials for any single result's influence to decay by half, is approximately 4 simulations. The effective span covering the majority of cumulative weight is roughly 13 simulations.

What notation does Protected Picks accept?

Comma-separated intervals: 1-4 protects positions 1 through 4. 1-4,10-14 protects two disjoint ranges. A single number like 5 protects only that position. Leaving the field blank means unprotected.

What do the Top 4 and #1 OVR columns mean, and where do those numbers come from?

Top 4 is the probability that a team's lottery position lands in the top four picks — the positions that are drawn first in the NBA lottery. #1 OVR is the probability of landing the first overall pick specifically. Both figures are sourced directly from the NBA's published lottery odds for the 2025–26 season, which assign each of the 14 lottery seeds a fixed probability distribution across pick outcomes based on the combination weighting system the league uses.

These columns are deterministic — they do not change based on simulation results. They reflect the fixed pre-lottery odds the NBA publishes for each seed position. The simulation, by contrast, samples from those same odds to produce the pick distribution and conveyance estimates, which do vary across runs.

How does the NCAA Champion Probability Simulator work?

The simulator runs 1,000 simulations from the Final Four through the championship game using the opening Final Four championship odds from March 29, 2026 as the probability foundation. Each matchup is resolved with per-game win probabilities derived from those title odds, and the result is a probability distribution showing how often each of the four remaining teams won across all trials.

How are championship odds converted to per-game win probability?

Championship odds cannot be used directly as literal single-game probabilities because they reflect the full multi-game path to a title. The simulator converts them to implied title probabilities, then compares the two teams directly in any matchup: if Team A has probability pA and Team B has probability pB, Team A's base chance is pA / (pA + pB) before the Upset Factor is applied.

What does the Upset Factor do?

The Upset Factor slider controls how much randomness is injected into each simulated game on top of the championship-odds model. At 0 percent, the simulator follows the direct title-probability matchup baseline. At 100 percent, every game becomes a pure 50/50 coin flip regardless of odds. The default setting is 10 percent.

Why does it show a distribution instead of a single winner?

A single simulation produces one champion, but that outcome depends heavily on random chance in any particular run. Running 1,000 independent simulations and measuring how often each team wins produces a stable probability estimate that reflects the structure of the bracket and the underlying odds far more accurately than any single trial. The distribution shows which teams have realistic championship paths and how much probability mass is concentrated in the favorites versus spread across the field — information that a single simulated bracket cannot provide.

Are the NCAA simulator results based on real sportsbook odds?

Yes. The simulator is seeded with the opening Final Four championship odds from March 29, 2026, converted into implied title probabilities and then translated into matchup probabilities by comparing the two teams directly in each simulated game.

How does the NBA Playoff Bracket Simulator work?

The simulator pulls live conference standings from the ESPN API so seeds always reflect the current regular season. Championship odds from DraftKings Sportsbook serve as the probability foundation, but the standings still determine the playoff field and bracket structure. Each series win probability is built directly from the two teams' implied title probabilities, then optionally blended toward 50/50 by the Upset Factor slider. The full play-in tournament (seeds 7 through 10 per conference) is included. Simulate the play-in games first to set the #7 and #8 seeds, then run the 16-team main bracket.

How does the play-in tournament work in the simulator?

Each conference runs three play-in games before the main bracket opens. Game A (#7 seed vs #8 seed): the winner locks in as the #7 seed and advances directly to the first round. The loser is not eliminated — they fall to Game C. Game B (#9 seed vs #10 seed): the winner advances to Game C; the loser is eliminated from the playoffs entirely. Game C (loser of Game A vs winner of Game B): the winner earns the #8 seed and enters the first round against the #1 seed. Both conferences run their play-in simultaneously in the bracket. Simulate Games A and B first, then Game C — the #7 and #8 slots in the first round will not populate until those results are in.

Where do the NBA bracket seeds come from?

Conference standings are pulled live from the ESPN API each time the page loads, so seeds always reflect the current regular season standings. The play-in field (seeds 7 through 10 per conference) populates automatically. No manual entry is needed — reloading the page after standings change will update all 20 bracket slots.

How are win probabilities calculated for NBA series?

The simulator converts championship odds into implied probabilities, then compares the two teams directly for each series: if Team A has implied title probability pA and Team B has implied title probability pB, Team A's base chance of winning the series is pA / (pA + pB). That base series probability is then blended toward 50/50 by the Upset Factor slider. Championship odds are used as the source, not series-specific odds, so this remains an approximation rather than a sportsbook-matched series market.

What does the Upset Factor do in the NBA bracket?

The Upset Factor slider (0 to 100 percent, default 10 percent) controls how closely win probabilities follow the underlying championship odds versus converging toward a pure coin flip. At 0 percent, the live title-market baseline is preserved. At 100 percent, every series is 50/50 regardless of seeding or odds. Raising the slider makes underdogs more competitive without changing the underlying standings or bracket.

Can I simulate individual series or do I have to run the whole bracket?

Individual series can be simulated by clicking any unlocked matchup in the bracket. The popup shows the two teams and a Simulate This Series button, which plays the slot machine animation and locks in a result. Dependent matchups in the next round unlock automatically once a result is set. Simulate All runs every available game from the earliest unlocked stage forward. Reset Sim clears all simulated results while keeping live standings in place, so you can run a new scenario without reloading the page.

Can I export or print the NBA bracket?

Yes. The Export dropdown provides four options. Print opens a clean print layout with a white background and no controls, suitable for printing or saving as a PDF. Save HD PNG downloads a high-resolution image of the full bracket. Copy Image to Clipboard puts the bracket on your system clipboard for pasting into messages or social posts. Copy Image and Post to X copies the image and opens X with a pre-filled link.

What is the Lottery Forecast?

The Lottery Forecast is a full-lottery simulator that models all 14 NBA Draft Lottery picks simultaneously instead of analyzing one team at a time. It pulls the current lottery field from live standings, applies current pick-protection rules, runs complete lottery drawings, and displays a projected order for all 14 teams. The chart labels show how many times the displayed team landed in that exact slot during the current run.

How is the Lottery Forecast different from the Team Pick Sim?

The Team Pick Sim focuses on a single team's seed and asks whether that team's pick lands inside or outside a protection range — it is designed for analyzing trade obligations. The Lottery Forecast simulates all 14 picks at once and produces a projected order for the entire lottery field, then maps that order to a weighted mock draft board using prospect rankings, team-need weights, and current mock-draft consensus fits. The two tools answer different questions: conveyance probability for a specific pick versus projected draft position for every lottery team.

Why do picks 1 through 3 show low bars but picks 11 through 14 show tall bars?

Bar height in the current version represents occurrence count, not percentage. Picks 1 through 3 stay relatively low because several teams have similar top-lottery odds, so the sample spreads those early slots across multiple teams. Picks 11 through 14 tend to show much taller bars because once the four lottery winners are drawn, the rest of the board usually falls back into seed order.

How does the mock draft work in the Lottery Forecast?

Once the simulation settles on a projected pick order, clicking Generate Lottery Draft runs a weighted mock draft board that assigns one 2026 prospect to each of the 14 picks. The model blends three current inputs from the app logic: TankOdds prospect ranking, editorial team positional need, and recurring player-team fits from current expert mock drafts. Picks 1 through 5 still lean heavily toward top talent, but team need and mock consensus have some influence there too. From pick 6 onward, team need and mock-fit signals matter more. Players are revealed one at a time in pick order with a short pause between each selection to simulate the actual draft board experience.

This is not a pick-probability model. For any given projected lottery order, the current mock board is deterministic, which means the same projected order will produce the same draft board again unless the underlying rankings, need weights, or fit signals are updated.

What do the asterisks (*) mean next to team names in the Lottery Forecast?

A single asterisk flags teams whose pick may convey to another franchise depending on where it lands in the lottery. A double asterisk indicates the current projected slot already falls outside protection, so the pick would convey to the recipient shown. Use the Team Pick Sim for full protection analysis on any specific pick obligation.